Integrated Approaches: Climate Smart Development

Climate Smart Development – At a Glance

  • Energy use (electricity, heat, and transport) contribute to 73.2% of global greenhouse gas emissions (also see details ).

  • According to International Energy Agency, in the year 2017 alone, China has installed 19.7 GW of wind energy capacity, building and installing two wind turbines every hour . A single 2.5 MW wind turbine can generate enough electricity to power over 1,400 households annually .

  • The impact of extreme natural disasters is equivalent to a global $520 billion loss in annual consumption and forces some 26 million people into poverty each year.

  • Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) have increased by almost 50 per cent since 1990.

  • For each 1 degree of temperature increase, grain yields decline by about 5 per cent.

  • From 1901 to 2010, the global average sea level rose by 19 cm due to warming and ice melted.

  • According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), fossil fuel subsidies were estimated at US$4.7 trillion or 6.5 percent of GDP in 2015. Using efficient fossil fuel pricing (rather than subsidized pricing) that year would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28 percent and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46 percent, and increased government revenue by 3.8 percent of GDP (source: IMF ).

Disasters

Early Warning

There have been dramatic changes in the way in which disasters are being monitored, forecasted, and communicated using the power of new technology.

If we explore some of the comprehensive data and powerful analytics available in the public domain accessible on any smartphone, we can a key foundation for early warning. For example, some of the services featured in the Bank’s evolving HydroInformatics Platform are indicated below.

NASA: Global Precipitation Mission



Earth



Earth online provides direct access to the European Space Agency’s Earth observation data and information relate to satellite missions, airborne ground campaigns.

Windy: Global Interactive weather forecasting

A very useful global platform developed by a Czech company that leverages weather services from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ECMWF, EU Metsat, Meteoblue AG at Switzerland’s University of Basel, and the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service, a nonprofit that offers feeds from European satellites



Flood Exposure:



Drought Exposure:



GEOGLOWS-ECMWF (an exciting “disruption” with a 2 week forecast and 40 year hindcast that can be made more useful with bias correction using in-situ monitoring records).



USDA’s Global Agricultural & Disaster Assessment System (GADAS)

Explore a range of services including sub-surface soil moisture to storm tracking to agricultural statistics.



NASA – Landslide

Globally, small and large landslides cause destruction, but large landslides get reported on the media. Small landslides still have an impact on the inhabitants of the area. The Cooperation Open Online Landslide Repository (COOLR) incorporates citizen science contributions using a landslide reporter , landslide databases, and NASA Global Landslide Catalog.

UNISDR/UNEP

The Global Risk Data Platform is a multiple agency effort to share spatial data information on global risk from natural hazards. Users can visualize, download or extract data on past hazardous events, human & economical hazard exposure and risk from natural hazards



Google-SAR

The Google Flood Forecasting Initiative has started leveraging the power of big data and AI to produce flood forecasts in India and Bangladesh.



Communication to Stakeholders

Bangladesh has had a long history of facing natural disasters such as floods and cyclones (hurricanes). Some earlier events such as the Great Bhola Cyclone in 1970 (then East Pakistan) claimed a staggering 300,000-500,000 lives, many with no warning when asleep. Although the country has continued to face cyclones and floods, the preparedness, forecasting and early warning systems have dramatically reduced the human toll. Earth observation is particularly useful to inform single or multi-hazard systems at different levels. It is important to use evolving information and communication systems to strengthen the links between the global/regional/national levels and the community systems for early warning.

Climate Insurance

New approaches to leverage earth observation and cloud analytics are making possible the availability of climate insurance even to poor farmers.

In Sub Saharan Africa, Acre Africa is offering insurance protection smallholder farmers against vulnerabilities of climate change through technology. They offer weather index cover (triggered through satellite monitoring of rainfall), livestock cover and hybrid index and multi-peril crop insurance.



Acre Africa is also partnering with the Lab by Sprout Insure to offer blockchain based climate risk insurance to farmers, with a pilot in Kenya.



Climate Change

Climate Change is a significant concern for sustainable development.



The 2020 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change indicates that climate change continues unabated. Coal use for energy has increased by 74% in the last three decades with steady carbon intensity of the global energy system. Livestock emissions have grown by 16% from 2000 to 2017. According to the IPCC 44% of recent human-driven methane, a potent greenhouse gas, comes from agriculture, peatland destruction and other land-based sources.

The United Nations has called for starting carbon neutrality NOW. They indicate that bold climate action could deliver US$26 trillion in economic benefits by 2030. This could include investing in a clean economy that could generate 65 million new low-carbon jobs and an investment of US$1.8 trillion in the next decade on adaptation that could generate US$7.1 trillion in total net benefits.

Data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost an average of 279 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2019, while Antarctica lost about 148 billion tons of ice per year due to climate change.

In the last century, the global sea level rose by about 8 inches (20 centimeters) , with the last decades rate of increase, nearly double that of the last century.

The United Nations has called for starting carbon neutrality NOW. They indicate that bold climate action could deliver US$26 trillion in economic benefits by 2030. This could include investing in a clean economy that could generate 65 million new low-carbon jobs and an investment of US$1.8 trillion in the next decade on adaptation that could generate US$7.1 trillion in total net benefits.

Growing Green Deals

Many countries are seeking to develop a systematic approach to address climate and other sustainability challenges with “Green Deals” that seek to change the paradigm of development – e.g. with goals for decarbonization/climate neutrality and several other environmental goals.

With the aim to be climate neutral by 2050, the European Union’s European Green Deal provides an ambitious action plan for boosting the efficient use of resources through a move to clean, circular economy and the restoration of biodiversity and reduction of pollution. Investments and financing tools needed to achieve these goals are outlined in the plan. In addition, there is a proposed European Climate Law to make these targets a legal obligation for countries in the region.

Reaching this target will require action by all sectors of the economy, including

  • investing in environmentally friendly technologies

  • supporting industry to innovate

  • rolling out cleaner, cheaper and healthier forms of private and public transport

  • decarbonizing the energy sector

  • ensuring buildings are more energy efficient

  • working with international partners to improve global environmental standards

countries most affected by the transition will be offered financial and technical assistance, called the Just Transition Mechanism , which will help mobilize at least €100 billion over the period 2021-2027 in the most affected regions.

The European Union plans to invest USD 267 billion towards climate friendly investments as part of its European Green Deal. Some of the EU funded projects to green the economy include installation of solar panels on private homes in Lithuania, substituting harmful refrigerants to make appliances at least 10% more energy efficient in Italy, Spain and Romania, lowering car emissions by replacing heavier car manufacturing materials with lighter, renewable components in Poland and Italy, and building 524 affordable and energy efficient social housing units in Navarra, Spain.

Human activities have a huge impact on the environment and very often this impact means degradation of the ecosystem. There are multiple examples of depletion of forests and watersheds due to economic exploitation, ranging from deforestation in the Amazon to grow palm trees, to the Tar Sands in Alberta Canada to obtain fossil fuels, that put a high pressure on biodiversity due to the destruction of their habitats and ecosystems.

It has emerged as a strategic priority for many governments, it encompasses sustaining and advancing economic, environmental and social wellbeing. The green economy promotes growth and development for countries while reducing pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, minimizing waste and inefficient use of natural resources, maintaining biodiversity, and strengthening energy security (OECD)

Capacity building, information exchange and experience sharing, are critical for countries to implement policies for the green economy. Technology is driving innovation, new products, processes, and business models across sectors; in the energy, smart power grids, carbon capture and storage off grid technologies such as local wind turbines, desalination plants for water management, low emission vehicles, fuels, electric vehicles and bus rapid transit for the transport sector, climate resistant infrastructure for the management of forests and biodiversity to name a few.

World Bank’s Growing Green: The Economic Benefits of Climate Action report highlights- transition to cleaner energy, energy efficiency and improved natural resources management offers the best opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas GHG emissions with larger potential gains in industrial production and construction sector. Green transport and clean energy production can substantially reduce public health costs associated with pollution.

The economic success of industrialized countries was largely driven by the Clean Environment, where there is a dependence on fossil fuels for energy, transport and industry, development is resource intensive, production factor intensive leading to unsustainable growth and climate vulnerability. The consequences of the clean environment have led to alarming greenhouse gas emissions and negative effects on climate change, such are air and water pollution, heat waves, health risks, forest fires etc. Countries are shifting towards low carbon and climate resilient economies to mitigate the negative effects of climate change in line with the Paris Agreement goals , through resource efficiency, renewable energy, and innovative technologies for sustainable development. Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) have increased by almost 50 per cent since 1990.In 2018 Coal accounted for 30% of global CO2 emissions with coal-fired power plants the single largest contributor to the growth in emissions for the year. To limit global warming to 1.5°, total coal (including with Carbon Capture and Storage) must be close to 0% of electricity generation by 2050. Across sectors globally, governments, businesses and civil society groups are putting in place strategies and initiatives towards transition to low carbon economies. Technology is playing a key role in this transition, in combatting issues with air pollution, waste management, deforestation and other environmental degradation.

Annual total CO₂ emissions, by region



The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) measured carbon dioxide from the forest, ocean, soils, and human mission over time, allowing for better environmental resources management.



Global Shipping

Trade via shipping has always been a part of the blue economy since it first began 5,000 years ago . The key factors driving shipping today are global population, economic growth, and the need to carry raw material, intermediary and end products from production centers to consumers. In 2016, it was estimated the shipping tonnage is 10.7 billion, with an estimated value of 15.9 billion USD. Today, approximately 90 percent of global trade is carried by ships. To keep costs down, shipping companies use heavy fuel oil used by 60 percent of ocean-bound vessels because it is 30 percent cheaper. However, this fuel is a toxic sludge of oil, gas, and chemical remnants from the distillation and cracking process of crude oil.

The primary source of pollution from ships is air pollution, affecting human health and adding greenhouse gas emissions. It has been estimated the PM 2.5 and high sulfur content can cause 14 million childhood asthma and 400,000 premature deaths. To reduce the impact of sulfur pollutants, the International Maritime Organization began enforcing a sulfur cap starting January 1, 2020, to reduce the sulfur content in fuel from 3.5 percent to 0.5 percent by weight. Currently, it has been estimated shipborne carbon dioxide emission is approximately 2-3 percent of total emissions. An agreement was made to reduce the 2008 carbon footprint by 50 percent by 2050. Without an agreement, carbon dioxide emissions would increase somewhere between 50 - 250 percent and may account for a fifth of the global emissions

Climate-Smart Agriculture

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an integrated approach to managing landscapes-cropland, livestock, forests and fisheries—that address the interlinked challenges of food security and climate change. In 2020 the World Bank 52% of the world bank financing in Agriculture is targeted at climate change adaption and mitigation measures.

Climate-smart villages: a community approach to sustainable agriculture



Climate-Smart Cities

A special category of smart cities could be cities that are “climate-smart”. What does it mean to be a climate-smart city? - the video explains how cities can become more climate resilient.



Through its Smart City Sweden initiative , Sweden provides a range of smart and sustainable city solutions from world’s first electric road to Europe’s greenest battery factory in Skellefteå to circular water solutions in southern Gotland.

Cities are incorporating nature into their design to help improve their overall resilience. Singapore is designing and retrofitting buildings by making them biophilic since humans have an innate desire to connect to nature. Nature is incorporated in buildings by replacing windows, walls, and signs with plants, birds, and insects.

Climate-Smart Energy

There are successful experiences of reducing fossil fuel dependence and unreliable energy access using technology. One particularly good example is that of Morocco, that reduced its reliance on imported fossil fuels turning to renewable energy, taking advantage of its southern region. The major sources of alternative energy are solar and wind. Its outstanding solar program aims to generate 2 gigawatts of solar power by the year 2020, by building five mega-scale solar power projects with modern solar, thermal, photovoltaic, and concentrated solar power mechanisms. This program will increase by 14% the role of solar energy in the country’s total electricity capacity in 2020 and prevent the emission of 3.7 million tons of CO ² per year. The wind program is also intended to generate another additional 2 gigawatts by 2020 from the construction of 10 new more wind energy farms. With those programs Morocco will reduce its consumption of fossil fuels and therefore its dependency on other countries becoming more self-sufficient, but also will lower carbon emissions. In 2020 the country hopes to have 42% of installed power generation capacity by renewable energy resources and by 2030, more than half of its energy will be generated by renewables.



One other such example is India’s clean energy revolution. India commits to increase its renewable energy capacity to 175 GW by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030 which would be more than five times the country’s renewable energy capacity of 81 GW in 2019, which is 1/6th of India’s total electricity production. The country has increased its solar installed capacity from 2.6 GW to 35.7 GW in 2020. The country has distributed 366 million LED bulbs, reduced 3,85,64,945 t of CO2 per year and saved 47,611 mn kWh of energy per year through its UJALA LED distribution scheme. India leads the International Solar Alliance (ISA) , consisting of 121 countries, to collaborate on increasing solar energy use around the world and mobilize $1 trillion in investments by 2030. The country also walked away from plans to install nearly 14 GW of coal-fired power plants , largely because it is as affordable now to generate electricity with solar power as it is to use fossil fuels. In its latest solar auction, the country achieved a record low tariff of INR 2.44/unit (4 cents/unit) for a project in the desert state of Rajasthan. The below video highlights India’s renewable energy journey.



The solar home systems in Bangladesh has provided more than 18 million people access to electricity. The country is also turning to standalone solar mini-grids to power up small businesses and homes in remote areas that the electricity grid does not reach.



Engie EPS is building a 100 MW microgrid called Armonia in Palau, an oceanic country. Armonia consists of 35 MW of solar power generation, energy storage provided with a 45 MWh lithium-ion battery coupled to an existing 48 MW diesel power generator. The system will provide 45 percent of the total power demand.

Greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide occurs predominantly from the combustion of fossil fuels. Carbon Engineering is piloting negative emissions of CO2 removal by using direct air capture. Fans transport air into a reactor where through a series of chemical reactions, a liquid captures the CO2 and converts it into a salt. The salt can either be buried or converted into biofuel at 4 USD per gallon.



Billions in Change has introduced a clean and green device which can produce, store and use 300-watt hours of electricity without ever getting an electric bill. The device can be charged either through bicycling or through the solar panel affixed on it. The company has also developed an organic fertilizer which uses half the water, can produce double the produce and raise farmer’s income by 10 times. Currently It is in use across ~50,000 farms in India and there are plans to expand it to millions of farms.



In 2018, 65,000 people died globally due to heatstroke because they could not afford air conditioning during extreme heat waves. Air conditioning (originally developed in 1902) consumes a lot of energy that can represent 40 percent of a building's electrical cost , expels heat to the outside environment, and uses a chemical refrigerant for cooling. Alternatively, evaporative cooling sprays water to cool down the air but is not suitable for a tropical climate since it increases the humidity. Future air conditioners incorporate water and have a membrane to extract the water. The extracted 12-15 liters of water would be potable.



Quidnet Energy is generating electricity using geomechanical pump storage. Water is pumped from a pond to a deep well and kept under pressure. When energy is required, pressurized water passes through a turbine to create electricity as water is returned to the pond.

Transport/Mobility

Transport is an essential daily activity for a well-functioning economy and connecting communities. Today there are many challenges within this economic area, from poor designing to old and obsolete infrastructure that are not providing adequate solutions and that can become a danger in case of extreme weather conditions. Another challenge that faces worldwide transport is tackling emissions. Transport is also accountable for 24% of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions . This is a significant share and reducing it would help to reduce the impact of combustion in the environment.

New urban ideas for vehicles can improve mobility, this is the case of sharing bike companies. Bikeshares and E-bikes have been a success in Asia, helping to reduce congestion in big cities. To successfully tackle urban challenges, they must be a real alternative to cars, that are reasonably priced and situated in accessible public locations. From China there are more valuable lessons, such as the developing industry of electric cars, supported by government policies aimed to reduce pollution in cities. Australia has established an Office of Future Transport Technologies in 2018, a body that will pave the way for automated vehicle and other transport innovations. Barcelona has employed many smart solutions including smart parking and traffic systems to monitor congestion to keep its population moving freely. It is also investing in clean transport, with its fleet of hybrid buses and ‘Bicing’ - a smart cycling initiative. In Netherlands, electric vehicles are exempted from road tax and further tax breaks are given on purchase of electric vehicles. Germany is providing ~$ 7,000 USD subsidy towards the cost of electric vehicles. The country’s COVID-19 stimulus package includes a USD17.8 billion for sustainable transport , including electric car and bus subsidies, EV charging infrastructure and public transportation. The stimulus package also includes USD8.3 billion for clean hydrogen, which has a crucial role in decarbonizing heavy transportation and industry.

Humans cause approximately 94 percent of car crashes in the US is due to human error . Waymo , an autonomous driving technology company, has removed the car driver by using sensors and software to track object 360 degrees around the vehicle even in the dark. They partnered with many automotive manufactures to incorporate self-driving technology into future vehicles.



Energy

There are successful experiences of reducing fossil fuel dependence and unreliable energy access using technology. One particularly good example is that of Morocco, that reduced its reliance on imported fossil fuels turning to renewable energy, taking advantage of its southern region. The major sources of alternative energy are solar and wind. Its outstanding solar program aims to generate 2 gigawatts of solar power by the year 2020, by building five mega-scale solar power projects with modern solar, thermal, photovoltaic, and concentrated solar power mechanisms. This program will increase by 14% the role of solar energy in the country’s total electricity capacity in 2020 and prevent the emission of 3.7 million tons of CO ² per year. The wind program is also intended to generate another additional 2 gigawatts by 2020 from the construction of 10 new more wind energy farms. With those programs Morocco will reduce its consumption of fossil fuels and therefore its dependency on other countries becoming more self-sufficient, but also will lower carbon emissions. In 2020 the country hopes to have 42% of installed power generation capacity by renewable energy resources and by 2030, more than half of its energy will be generated by renewables.



One other such example is India’s clean energy revolution. India commits to increase its renewable energy capacity to 175 GW by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030 which would be more than five times the country’s renewable energy capacity of 81 GW in 2019, which is 1/6th of India’s total electricity production. The country has increased its solar installed capacity from 2.6 GW to 35.7 GW in 2020. The country has distributed 366 million LED bulbs, reduced 3,85,64,945 t of CO2 per year and saved 47,611 mn kWh of energy per year through its UJALA LED distribution scheme. India leads the International Solar Alliance (ISA) , consisting of 121 countries, to collaborate on increasing solar energy use around the world and mobilize $1 trillion in investments by 2030. The country also walked away from plans to install nearly 14 GW of coal-fired power plants , largely because it is as affordable now to generate electricity with solar power as it is to use fossil fuels. In its latest solar auction, the country achieved a record low tariff of INR 2.44/unit (4 cents/unit) for a project in the desert state of Rajasthan. The below video highlights India’s renewable energy journey.



The solar home systems in Bangladesh has provided more than 18 million people access to electricity. The country is also turning to standalone solar mini-grids to power up small businesses and homes in remote areas that the electricity grid does not reach.



Engie EPS is building a 100 MW microgrid called Armonia in Palau, an oceanic country. Armonia consists of 35 MW of solar power generation, energy storage provided with a 45 MWh lithium-ion battery coupled to an existing 48 MW diesel power generator. The system will provide 45 percent of the total power demand.

Autonomous vehicles (e.g. cars, trucks, ships) may still be years away from being common , but have the potential to dramatically change the travel and logistics space and their resulting emissions. Humans cause approximately 94 percent of car crashes in the US is due to human error . Waymo , an autonomous driving technology company, has removed the car driver by using sensors and software to track object 360 degrees around the vehicle even in the dark. They partnered with many automotive manufactures to incorporate self-driving technology into future vehicles. Logistics systems are going digital to improve efficiencies of inter-connected multi-modal systems.

Data and Analytics

There are a growing number of data related to climate that are coming from earth observation (e.g. NASA Global Precipitation Mission for rainfall, MODIS, Sentine-3 and other satellites for temperature, etc.), in-situ sensors, and models (e.g. the IPCC set of climate change modeling outputs and several related products such as statistical downscaling or regional climate models). These are increasingly accessible as online services that can be pre-analyzed and served (as in the case of the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal ) or be analyzed dynamically in real-time with online/cloud services (e.g. Google Earth Engine ).

New systems like GEDI that are a spaceborne LiDAR on the International Space Station have given us a new look at the forest canopy that can be analyzed with high-resolution satellite data services and critical in-situ plot data .

A first look at the height of the canopy around the world is visualized in the interactive map below:



There are also efforts to estimate Carbon in soils, illustrated with the interactive map below for Africa.



Open Foris , a collaboration of the FAO resource partners, software partners and contributors, is a set of free and open-source software tools powered by Google that facilitates flexible and efficient data collection, analysis and reporting on climate change climate change, deforestation and food production.



Urban areas experience higher temperatures than outlying areas. This difference in temperature is what constitutes an urban heat island (UHI). NASA ARSET is helping mitigate the UHI effect through its Long-Term Urban Climate Monitoring.



Curated Meats

There are a range of evolving technologies related to climate within different sectors, and it is useful to pick one to explore the far-reaching implications if these technologies evolve at scale.

The case of curated meats (also called lab-grown meat or cultured meats) is illustrative – these are not the growing set of plant-based meats (a $12 billion disruptive tech all on its own) – instead, they are real meat “produced” in a factory setting using stem cells from fat or muscle from animals. The benefit of these are that they can be set up anywhere, with much less of a resource “footprint” e.g. from a land or water requirement or greenhouse gas emissions. This could significantly reduce land and water pressures in some areas and contribute towards mitigation efforts to manage climate change. They could reduce one of the key threats facing areas like the Amazon in terms of reducing the demand for traditional cattle ranches and their pasture footprint. And of course, they could go a long way towards catering to changing diets (e.g. global demand for beef and other ruminant meats could rise by 88% between 2010 to 2050 ), feeding the nearly 690 million (an additional 132 million people could be added due to the COVID-19 pandemic) people hungry today (of the more than 2 billion food-insecure), and the challenge of feeding 10 billion mouths in 2050. They also eliminate the guilt of animal slaughter ( in the US alone, v over 7 billion chickens, 121 million pigs, and 39 million cows are killed for meat annually). Given how they are manufactured, they could also be customized to the dietary and medical requirements of the consumer and be of a higher quality standard (e.g. not subject to some of the diseases of livestock).

The costs for curated meats are plummeting (from an exorbitant $280,000 in 2013 to $10 in 2021 estimated per burger patty, and this is expected to continue as technologies evolve, companies innovate, and the production scale increases. These products have already started showing up in supermarkets in some countries and is expected to be scaled up dramatically in the coming years. Some estimate that over half the burgers, steaks, and chicken breasts we eat will be either lab-grown or plant-based in the next two decades.

So, what is the problem? The issue is that if costs keep dropping as this technology evolves, we need to consider, as with all technologies, not only the benefits, but the risks. In this case, there are 1.3 billion people that depend directly on livestock management for their livelihood globally, and many more that earn their livelihood from upstream (e.g. pasture) and downstream (e.g. processing, packing, transport) activities. Many of these people may be adversely impacted (especially in export-oriented systems) depending on the scale and speed of these changes and may need to learn new skills or find other livelihood sources.

This example for what seems like a small novelty “disruption” in one part of the food industry illustrates why we all need to keep track of the evolving disruption happening in all development sectors as they can have significant impacts in completely different sectors for different stakeholders.


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