1) Climate-related hazards considered in our study (i.e., floods, landslides, droughts) pose existential threats to multiple sectors in Burundi, including agriculture, environment, healthy, forestry, energy, infrastructure, human settlements, and water resource management.
2) Overall, half of Burundi is found to be ‘very highly’ vulnerable, while the other half is ‘highly’ vulnerable to climate-related hazards. Only a small part of the country, namely 120 collines, has a medium vulnerability class. The spatial distribution of the vulnerability is homogeneous- the north and west of the country are extremely vulnerable, while the south and east have a lower vulnerability class
3) Relative to the east, the western part of Burundi is more highly exposed to mean annual total precipitation, pluvial, and fluvial flooding, maximum number of consecutive dry days, unstable slope leading to landslides, and increasing soil erosion risk
4) Burundi has experienced a general warming trend in mean annual temperatures since 1979, with a trend of 0.31°C [0.18–0.41°C] per decade and, consequently, the coldest night temperatures have decreased while the hottest day temperatures have increased
5) Rainfall – including intense rainfall events – throughout Burundi’s watershed region has been dominated by natural variability. Therefore, no statistically significant long-term trends can be detected. However, the area has been subject to intense rainfall events over the years, and the trend is expected to increase over time. Despite model uncertainty, there is a consistent pattern of wetting in the northern region and drying in the southern region of Burundi.
6) The country’s western and eastern borderline areas are the identified hotspots to both riverine and precipitation-induced flood hazards. Nationally, 24 percent of Burundi’s landscape is exposed to ‘very high’ and ‘high’ flood-prone areas.
7) Flooding significantly contributes to internal forced displacement of thousands of people since the beginning of 2020 and may exacerbate pre-existing poverty and public health issues.
8) Collines in Bubanza, Bujumbura Mairie, Bujumbura Rural, Cibitoke, and Rumonge have the highest density of roads at risk from landslides and high NBS potential, and so represent opportunities to involve the transport sector (roads) in designing and coordinating landscape management activities that can mitigate these hazards
9) Several climate hotspot collines and provinces are also locations of internally displaced people (IDPs) and refugees, emphasizing the complexity of these multi-risk hotpot settings and the overall vulnerability people face as a direct result of climate change impacts.
10) The study recommendations include but are not limited to (a) evaluating the effectiveness of a suite of proposed NBS interventions in specific prioritized collines, (b) invest in climate research and development in Burundi, (c) invest in climate-smart agricultural practices, (d) monitor and manage water quality in Lake Tanganyika and across Burundi, (e) implement measures to strengthen houses and build back better with climate-resilient materials, (f) consider climate-resilient solutions and develop community-level contingency plans now and the future especially where landslide and flood risk are high and (g) create green jobs for providing sustainable livelihood options in part to mitigate internal climate-induced displacement due to recurrent droughts, intense floods, and severe landslides.