Diagnosing drivers of climate and environmental fragility in Burundi’s colline landscapes

An enhanced INFORM index has been used to identify multi-risk fragility hotspots in Burundi, where investment needs to achieve resilience are the most significant. Based on the INFORM index, considering hazards, vulnerability, coping capacity, and exposure indicators, our study identifies 347 collines to be ‘very highly’ vulnerable (i.e., risk score of 6.41-7.52), while another 1780 collines are ‘highly’ vulnerable to climate-related hazards (risk score of xx-6.40). Only the top 100 ‘very highly’ vulnerable fragile collines are included in Table 3 (the rest are appendix 1 of this e-book). Overall, half of Burundi is found to be either ‘very highly’ and ‘highly’ vulnerable to climate-related hazards. Only a small part of the country, namely 489 collines, has a medium vulnerability class. The spatial distribution of the vulnerability is homogeneous- the north and west of the country are extremely vulnerable, while the south and east have a lower vulnerability class (Figure 22). There are no collines in the low or very low vulnerability classes (Figure 22, also see Climate Centre et al., 2021 report for the 347 most vulnerable collines).

This story map created by the Burundi climate and environmental fragility ASA shows the interactions among different indicators of risks across climate, migration and conflict. It uses the INFORM index framework to represent a compound risk analysis at different time scales: now, 2030 and 2050.

Table 3. Collines most fragile in Burundi

*No.*	*Colline*	*Commune*	*Province*	*Risk Score*
1.	Gasenyi	Bweru	Ruyigi	7.52
2.	Gisenyi	Buhiga	Karuzi	7.47
3.	Bukinanyana	Bukinanyana	Cibitoke	7.41
4.	Ndava	Buraza	Gitega	7.4
5.	Rtyazo	Bukinanyana	Cibitoke	7.36
6.	Cumba	Gitobe	Kirundo	7.33
7.	Kibimba	Mishiha	Cankuzo	7.27
8.	Cibitoke	Rugombo	Cibitoke	7.21
9.	Cumva	Kirundo	Kirundo	7.2
10.	Buringa	Busoni	Kirundo	7.2
11.	Kavomo	Kirundo	Kirundo	7.19
12.	Gatwaro	Bweru	Ruyigi	7.18
13.	Cumba	Tangara	Ngozi	7.17
14.	Burara	Busoni	Kirundo	7.16
15.	Vumbi	Vumbi	Kirundo	7.15
16.	Gasenyi	Bururi	Bururi	7.12
17.	Cewe	Kirundo	Kirundo	7.11
18.	Kabere	Mabayi	Cibitoke	7.1
19.	Musenyi	Rutana	Rutana	7.09
20.	Budahunga	Bwambarangwe	Kirundo	7.09
21.	Gisenyi	Burambi	Rumonge	7.08
22.	Muyange	Mutaho	Gitega	7.08
23.	Kamaramagambo	Musongati	Rutana	7.08
24.	Muyange	Gashoho	Muyinga	7.08
25.	Gakomero	Bukinanyana	Cibitoke	7.06
26.	Buringa	Gasorwe	Muyinga	7.04
27.	Sigu	Busoni	Kirundo	7.04
28.	Nkongwe	Mutaho	Gitega	7.00
29.	Bumba	Butaganzwa	Kayanza	6.99
30.	Ruvumu	Kiremba	Ngozi	6.99
31.	Kigaga	Ntega	Kirundo	6.99
32.	Nyarwumba	Bukinanyana	Cibitoke	6.99
33.	Kinyinya	Kinyinya	Ruyigi	6.98
34.	Kididiri	Busiga	Ngozi	6.98
35.	Kinyovu	Matongo	Kayanza	6.98
36.	Kirambi	Itaba	Gitega	6.96
37.	Kivumu	Matongo	Kayanza	6.95
38.	Gikingo	Kabarore	Kayanza	6.95
39.	Ruvumera	Rugombo	Cibitoke	6.94
40.	Rushombo	Butihinda	Muyinga	6.94
41.	Nderama	Bukinanyana	Cibitoke	6.94
42.	Kagazi	Rugombo	Cibitoke	6.94
43.	Kirama	Muramvya	Muramvya	6.93
44.	Buhororo	Bubanza	Bubanza	6.92
45.	Gatare	Gashikanwa	Ngozi	6.92
46.	Kiri	Bugabira	Kirundo	6.92
47.	Rubirizi	Buyengero	Rumonge	6.91
48.	Kibati	Bukinanyana	Cibitoke	6.91
49.	Cumba	Rutegama	Muramvya	6.89
50.	Murama	Muyinga	Muyinga	6.89
51.	Gahoma	Mabayi	Cibitoke	6.89
52.	Ndava	Ryansoro	Gitega	6.88
53.	Karamira	Rugombo	Cibitoke	6.88
54.	Gikingo	Nyamurenza	Ngozi	6.88
55.	Kigoma	Mutumba	Karuzi	6.88
56.	Mukungu	Mwakiro	Muyinga	6.88
57.	Ruhagarika	Buganda	Cibitoke	6.88
58.	Muhenga	Bubanza	Bubanza	6.87
59.	Higiro	Gitega	Gitega	6.87
60.	Ngoma	Murwi	Cibitoke	6.86
61.	Nyamugari	Butaganzwa	Ruyigi	6.86
62.	Kigamba	Ruyigi	Ruyigi	6.86
63.	Gahe	Vumbi	Kirundo	6.86
64.	Nyabibugu	Kirundo	Kirundo	6.86
65.	Buramata	Gihanga	Bubanza	6.85
66.	Gitanga	Bubanza	Bubanza	6.85
67.	Butega	Murwi	Cibitoke	6.85
68.	Susa	Ntega	Kirundo	6.85
69.	Higiro	Busoni	Kirundo	6.85
70.	Gihinga	Gitobe	Kirundo	6.85
71.	Runyonza	Kirundo	Kirundo	6.85
72.	Murungurira	Ntega	Kirundo	6.84
73.	Gasenyi	Rusaka	Mwaro	6.83
74.	Bunogera	Ruyigi	Ruyigi	6.82
75.	Mukenke	Bwambarangwe	Kirundo	6.82
76.	Mahonda	Rusaka	Mwaro	6.81
77.	Mayuki	Mabayi	Cibitoke	6.81
78.	Centre-Urbain	Kirundo	Kirundo	6.81
79.	Kigoma	Busoni	Kirundo	6.81
80.	Mushanga	Murwi	Cibitoke	6.8
81.	Maramvya	Burambi	Rumonge	6.79
82.	Kabuye	Mbuye	Muramvya	6.79
83.	Kigina	Nyamurenza	Ngozi	6.79
84.	Rugazi	Rugazi	Bubanza	6.78
85.	Mirama	Gitega	Gitega	6.78
86.	Gitanga	Giharo	Rutana	6.78
87.	Gisebeyi	Gashoho	Muyinga	6.78
88.	Gitaza	Muhuta	Rumonge	6.78
89.	Kayange	Rugazi	Bubanza	6.77
90.	Gikwiye	Butaganzwa	Ruyigi	6.77
91.	Rushubije	Ntega	Kirundo	6.77
92.	Karamagi	Kirundo	Kirundo	6.77
93.	Jani	Gasorwe	Muyinga	6.77
94.	Gasave	Gahombo	Kayanza	6.76
95.	Rurtyazo	Mwakiro	Muyinga	6.76
96.	Kagege	Vugizo	Makamba	6.75
97.	Gifurwe	Mpanda	Bubanza	6.75
98.	Marumpu	Mugina	Cibitoke	6.75
99.	Bugorora	Ntega	Kirundo	6.75
100.	Ruhata	Kiremba	Ngozi	6.74

Figure 22. - Final composite Risk score

Climate change has been brutal for Burundi. Shifting weather patterns — the heavy rains, the high winds, the dry spells — have become increasingly unpredictable and extreme. Floodwaters have decimated communities, destroying homes and livelihoods. In the mountains, landslides are a constant threat.