Climate-related hazards considered in our study (i.e., floods, landslides, droughts) pose existential threats to multiple sectors in Burundi, including agriculture, environment, healthy, forestry, energy, infrastructure, human settlements, and water resource management. For example, higher temperatures will cause more evapotranspiration and consequently reduce the probability of higher yields of maize without technological improvements, and lake productivity might be reduced. Additionally, malaria transmission is likely to increase because of the increased day- and night-time temperatures (Table 4 for details).
Table 4. Multi-sectoral impacts of climate change in Burundi
|
Sector |
Projected climate Impacts |
|
Agriculture  |
- Decline in rainfed maize yield without technological improvements - Reduce the water available for plant growth - Increase soil erosion leading to agricultural land degradation - Increase pest and disease incidences affecting crops and livestock |
|
Water  |
- Pluvial and fluvial flooding causing exceptionally high-water levels in Lake Tanganyika - Increase sedimentation causing decline water quality - Increase demand on water resources, depleting groundwater aquifers - Increase salinity of groundwater resources near lakes |
|
Health  |
- Increase malnutrition due to lack of insufficient protein - Increase prevalence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria - Increase number of people at risk to heat stress and its related condition, elderly, chronically ill, and children are especially vulnerable - Increase prevalence of water-borne diseases such as diarrhoea |
|
Infrastructure  |
- Pluvial and fluvial flooding causing damage to public infrastructure such as roads, bridges, hospitals, electricity networks, schools, and markets and - Destruction of private properties such houses, hotels, etc - Increase forced displacement of people, especially affecting those in the most vulnerable collines |
|
Forests  |
- Increase deforestation to address households’ economic and domestic needs (people cut down trees for firewood and build shelters; these activities) - Land degradation due to increase temperatures - Loss of biodiversity, including plants and animals - Increase prevalence of conflict over forest resources - Increase forest disturbances such as insect outbreaks, invasive species, wildfires, and storms |
|
Fisheries  |
- Reduce productivity of fish yields in lakes and river systems - Increase pollution of marine ecosystem - Overfishing leading to depletion of fisheries resources - loss of fisheries stock due to the migratory nature of certain fishes |
|
Energy  |
- Decrease in hydropower output - Increase demand for energy uses for household and industrial purposes |